Risk Assessment and Resilience Analysis of Critical Infrastructures for AFAD

A better localization and quantification of natural risks on the Turkish territory


Damage to Critical Infrastructures, their destruction or disruption by natural disasters can have a significant negative impact on the security of a country and the well-being of its citizens.

The Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey (AFAD) commissioned us to conduct Risk Assessment and Resilience Analysis of Critical Infrastructures on its territory against natural hazards (e.g. earthquake, floods, storms, etc.). We aim at providing a comparison in terms of expected annual loss among the current status of different asset categories, belonging to energy and healthcare sectors.


We combined the Risk Assessment approach and the Resilience Analysis from different engineering fields within a Global Information System (GIS), modular, scalable, multi-hazard, multi-asset harmonized procedure.


This approach will allow for a better localization and quantification of risk (provided as economic/financial exposure), keeping a high-level transversal comparison among asset categories, thus allowing a better management of resources in a resilience perspective.

This will be delivered via specific project outcomes:

  • methodology and guidelines for determining the level of criticality;
  • risk assessment methodology, checklists and guidelines for disaster management at the sectoral level (energy, healthcare);
  • sector-level risk assessment reports, and gap analysis reports and suggestions;
  • a web-based software to determine levels of criticality and conduct risk analyses at the sectoral level (energy, healthcare);
  • reports providing policy recommendations.

Clemente Fuggini