Global steel production has shown a consistent upward trend over the decades, reflecting industrial growth worldwide.
The only notable exception is the temporary dip during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021), when production briefly stagnated or declined due to supply chain disruptions and reduced demand. Importantly, steel is 100% recyclable, which provides a strong advantage when considering CO₂ emissions and opportunities for a low-carbon circular economy.
From current world production of steel of about 1.9bnt/year, available model estimates world production in 2050 in the range 2.5-2.5bnt/year. Global and European efforts to decarbonize the steel industry are accelerating, driven by national and regional climate commitments that target net-zero emissions between 2050 and 2060 in most major economies.
Governments and steelmakers are converging on a mix of strategies: ambitious climate policies, incentives for “green” production routes such as electric arc furnaces, green hydrogen–based direct reduction, expanded steel recycling, and-where feasible-the deployment of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).
Yet the transition remains technically complex and economically demanding. Transforming an industry built on coalbased blast furnaces requires massive infrastructural upgrades, secure access to renewable electricity and affordable green hydrogen, and in many cases the full conversion or retirement of existing assets.
Although low-carbon steelmaking is gaining traction, it still represents a small fraction of global output.
The real impact on worldwide emissions will depend on how quickly these emerging technologies can scale and how effectively countries align industrial policy, energy systems, and investment flows with long-term climate goals
